Vanguard has updated its forecasts for broad asset class returns through a March 31, 2025, running of the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® (VCMM). The probabilistic return assumptions depend on market conditions and change with each running over time. Forecast changes relative to the December 31, 2024, running of the VCMM are attributable both to market movements and enhancements to our model itself.

Within Vanguard’s Fixed Income Group, experienced credit analysts work side by side with portfolio managers and traders to deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns for shareholders. Colleen Cunniffe, co-head of global taxable credit research, and Nathan Will, head of municipal credit research, discuss what makes their teams tick and the benefits of their integrated, collaborative process.

For more than two decades, Vanguard’s How America Saves report has highlighted the strides retirement plan sponsors have made toward enhanced plan design and improved participant behaviors. “The progress is remarkable—and for that we’d like to say ‘thank you’ to our plan sponsors,” said lead author Jeff Clark, previewing the results featured in the 2025 issue. “The data in How America Saves are really a reflection of the actions and decisions that our clients have made.”

The performance of actively managed equity funds is frequently evaluated using style benchmarks. Based on recent returns of value and growth investment styles, our analysis shows that how active funds perform relative to their style benchmarks tends to be inversely related to how the style itself performs. This pattern is important for investors to understand to fairly assess the performance of active managers.

As market pullbacks and volatility dominate headlines, many clients are looking to their financial advisors for guidance. We have long maintained that periods of uncertainty, like those we’ve seen so far in 2025, are the “moments that matter” and “Advisor’s Alpha weather.”

While the April 2 tariff announcements were more severe than anticipated, Vanguard’s active fixed income managers were well-prepared for the subsequent market reaction, having trimmed credit risk and moved up in quality, while utilizing duration as a hedge. Amid continued market and policy uncertainty, fixed income remains a crucial component of a diversified investment strategy—serving as a long-term portfolio ballast and providing attractive yields by historical standards.

Over 40% of investors reported being under financial stress, but having a planning mindset can help with that, according to our Money Attitudes Survey 2023. In particular, focusing on things under one’s control—by paying down debt, building emergency savings, creating a long-term investment plan, and, perhaps, seeking financial advice—can make a difference. Here are some key findings.

An update on our U.S. economic forecasts following the U.S. trade announcement and recent market volatility.

In August 2022, amid a difficult year for emerging markets (EM) and risk assets more broadly, Vanguard made the case for EM corporate debt, citing strong fundamentals and very attractive valuations. However, we now believe that the outperformance of EM corporates over sovereign credit has run its course.